Agentiq’s valuation and projection team includes former MLB front-office executives and data scientists. Drawing on experience evaluating players inside professional baseball organizations, the team has developed a proprietary AI/ML model to estimate a player’s range of potential career outcomes, likelihood of future success, projected earnings, and net present value (NPV).
The model evaluates more than 100 quantitative and qualitative variables and combines machine-assisted analysis with professional sports and financial judgment. MLB front-office experience informs data selection, player comparisons, development assumptions, advanced-stat interpretation, and review of model outputs. The objective is a repeatable, data-driven estimate—not a guaranteed prediction of player success or investment return.
How the player NPV model works
1. Build the player data set
The model evaluates more than 100 variables. The exact inputs and their relevance vary by sport, position, career stage, and available data. Representative factors may include:
age, position, and expected career duration;
historical and recent performance;
playing time, role, availability, and durability;
advanced analytics and position-specific metrics;
development trajectory and performance-range scenarios;
contract status, compensation structure, and comparable players;
team, league, market, and salary-cap conditions; and
sport-specific risks and other quantitative or qualitative information.
No single variable determines the result, and an athlete’s popularity or a single recent event should not be treated as a valuation by itself.
2. Model a range of future outcomes
The team uses Monte Carlo simulation to model many potential career and financial paths rather than relying on one point forecast. Inputs and assumptions are varied across simulations to reflect uncertainty in performance, availability, career length, contract outcomes, and other relevant factors.
The resulting distribution shows a range of modeled outcomes. Agentiq identifies a midpoint or other central estimate from that distribution for use in the valuation analysis. An upside scenario is a model output—not a promise or marketing forecast.
3. Discount future value to today
Projected future value is discounted back to the present using assumptions intended to reflect time value and risk. This produces the modeled player NPV.
The discount rate and other assumptions can materially affect the result. Different reasonable assumptions may produce different values, and actual outcomes may differ substantially from every modeled scenario.
4. Determine the offering price
Player NPV is an input to the offering analysis; it is not automatically the value of a Series or a Unit. The initial Unit price also depends on the applicable Series structure, the Brand Advisory Agreement and defined Brand Amounts, the number and terms of Units offered, offering expenses, fees, reserves, conflicts, and other terms disclosed in the Offering Circular.
The final offering price and its basis are stated in the applicable Offering Circular, which controls over this Help Center summary.
How to interpret a displayed valuation
A modeled valuation or estimated Unit value is:
an estimate based on data, assumptions, and professional judgment;
subject to revision as inputs, methodology, or circumstances change;
not an independent appraisal unless expressly identified as one;
not a quoted market price or guaranteed redemption value; and
not a guarantee of Brand Amounts, distributions, appreciation, liquidity, or returns.
Career events—such as performance changes, contracts, injuries, availability, suspensions, retirement, or other developments—may affect model inputs. They do not produce a predetermined valuation change or assure any economic result.
Important limitations
Models cannot eliminate uncertainty or capture every possible outcome. Data may be incomplete, delayed, or inaccurate. Assumptions may not be realized. No public trading market currently exists for the Units, so a modeled or displayed value may not be realizable through resale.
Review the applicable Offering Circular for the complete pricing methodology, material assumptions, conflicts, limitations, and risk factors. SEC qualification permits sales of the qualified offering; it is not SEC approval, recommendation, endorsement, verification of the valuation, or a suitability determination. Investors may lose their entire investment.