Agentiq’s valuation and projection team includes former MLB front-office executives and data scientists. The team has built a proprietary AI/ML model to estimate a player’s range of potential career outcomes, likelihood of future success, projected earnings, and net present value (NPV).
Model inputs
The model evaluates more than 100 quantitative and qualitative variables. The exact factors and weightings vary by sport, position, career stage, and available data. Representative inputs may include:
age, position, and expected career duration;
recent, historical, and trend-adjusted performance;
advanced analytics and position-specific statistics;
playing time, role, opportunity, availability, and durability;
injury history and recovery uncertainty;
development trajectory and modeled upside and downside ranges;
contract status, compensation structure, and comparable players;
team, league, market, and salary-cap conditions; and
other sport-specific, financial, legal, and reputational information.
Former MLB front-office experience informs data selection, player comparisons, development assumptions, and review of model outputs. The proprietary AI/ML model supplements professional judgment rather than replacing it.
From projections to valuation
The team models many possible performance, career, contract, and earnings paths rather than relying on a single point forecast. Monte Carlo simulation may be used to produce a distribution of outcomes and identify a midpoint or other central estimate. Projected future value is then discounted back to present value as part of the player NPV analysis.
Player NPV is one input to offering pricing; it is not automatically the value of a Series or Unit. The applicable Series structure, Brand Advisory Agreement and defined Brand Amounts, Unit terms, offering expenses, fees, reserves, conflicts, and other disclosed terms also affect the analysis.
Important limitations
The model, inputs, relationships, and assumptions may change, and actual outcomes may differ materially from every modeled scenario. Do not treat the proprietary model, an upside scenario, professional experience, third-party review, SEC qualification, an athlete profile, or a platform estimate as an independent appraisal, investment recommendation, market price, or assurance of player success or returns.
The Offering Circular states the final offering price and its basis and controls over Help Center summaries. It contains the material methodology, assumptions, limitations, conflicts, and risk factors. No public trading market currently exists, so a displayed value may not be realizable through resale.
For additional detail, see How Agentiq builds player valuations and offering prices.
SEC qualification permits sales; it is not approval, recommendation, endorsement, verification of a projection or valuation, or a suitability determination. Investors may lose their entire investment.